Purchase Intent Scores

April 3, 2003

The Question 

An ANA member sought information on the relationship between new product and/or brand extension launches and purchase intent scores.

  1. Do purchase intent scores determine whether or not a new product and/or brand extension will be launched?
  2. Are purchase intent scores for new products/brand extensions generally higher than those of established products?

1. Do purchase intent scores determine whether or not a new product and/or brand extension will be launched?

Response #1

"Yes, purchase intent scores play a key role along with other pieces of consumer and business information. We often use simulated marketing test models (STMs) for forecasting new product volume prior to launch. These models typically use purchase intent as a key input for trial estimates and after-purchase intent as in input to forecasting repeat sales.

Response #2

"No, 'purchase intent' estimates are never used [at my company]. In well-run packaged goods companies they are very important in decisions about a new product launch."

Response #3

"Purchase Intent Scores alone cannot be used to determine a product. I can get a 100% top single box score among those who 'really like the product." While that is an extreme, a purchase intent score needs to be extended through the size of the group it represents. A different answer would come from a general population measured intent score being extended than the same score among a category user sample frame. [Also], the other thing which is an absolute must is some indicator of potential repeat."

Response #4

"[My company] does not use raw purchase intent scores-we plug them into a forecasting model and use the volume from that model-along with net present value of the project based on that volume, to a make a launch decision. Ultimately, the financials drive the decision."


2. Are purchase intent scores for new products/brand extensions generally higher than those of established products?

Response #1

"Depends on the breadth of appeal for the individual idea/concept. We have seen in general that categories with high penetration will tend to get higher purchase intent scores for new products in these categories (assuming the idea has merit) than low penetration scores. As far as new versus established-depends on the category, current success and strength of the established brand, or the merit of the new idea."

Response #2

"I don't know the answer...I think it depends on the category and the strength of the new product concept: trendy-ness matters, as do perceived economic conditions. My guess is that any generalizations on this will result in spurious information since there are so many variables."

Response #3

"[T]here may be some generally higher levels for extensions if the underlying brand is strong. Of course this assumes you are showing the brand mark and its associated image comes through without conflict by the nature of the line extension item."

Response #4

"Generally, our purchase intent scores vary based on the item itself. Sometimes using an existing brand name helps a new item. Sometimes it hurts. It just depends if the new item capitalizes on the existing equity of a sustaining brand or not. We do not see a completely consistent pattern."

Source

"Purchase Intent Scores." ANA Advertising and Marketing Research Committee, 04/03/03.