U.S. Ad Rev Forecast To Rise 2.5% In 2014
August 11, 2014
by Wayne Friedman
National TV advertising among the major media companies may not be doing as poorly as first indicated, according to one financial analyst.
Although a number of major TV-centric companies reported lower or weak advertising sales, Brian Wieser, senior research analyst of Pivotal Research Group, says by way of comparison to the overall advertising market, national TV had a decent performance.
Wieser writes: “On our current read, U.S. media owners advertising underlying annual growth (excluding incremental Olympic and political advertising) was around 1% in second-quarter 2014 versus slightly more than 2% in first quarter of 2014.
Pivotal estimates a 2.5% U.S. domestic advertising growth this year.
But TV looks like it outperformed the market overall to date.
“We would note that if national TV grew at 2% as we think it did, it means that the medium continued to gain share of ad spending, rather than lose share as many believe.” Wieser says first-quarter ad revenue was up 3% for national TV.
Breaking this down, when looking at domestic revenues from cable network groups -- AMC Networks, Comcast, Discovery Communications, Walt Disney, 21st Century Fox, Scripps Network Interactive, Time Warner and Viacom -- on average grew by 4.4% in the second quarter; and 4.7% during the first quarter. Broadcast networks had a harder time of it with ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC declining around 4% in the second quarter, by his estimates.
Overall, the national TV advertising data needs to be viewed long-term. Wieser says: “While this is indeed a slowdown, when put in context of a full year, where growth rates can easily deviate by several percentage points between the quarters, we don’t see this as particularly meaningful in context of our expectations for the medium.”
"U.S. Ad Rev Forecast To Rise 2.5% In 2014." MediaPost, 08/11/14.
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